Developing Thoughts About What Might Have Been

Recent research has changed how developmental psychologists understand counterfactual thinking or thoughts of what might have been. Evidence suggests that counterfactual thinking develops over an extended period into at least middle childhood, depends on domain-general processes including executive function and language, and dissociates from counterfactual emotions such as regret. In this article, we review the developmental evidence that forms a critical but often-overlooked complement to the cognitive, social, and neuroscience literatures. We also highlight topics for further research, including spontaneous counterfactual thinking and counterfactual thinking in clinical settings. KEYWORDS—counterfactual thinking; cognitive development; imagination; regret Much of intelligent thought involves speculating outside the here and now. Counterfactual thoughts compare what we know to be true with what might have been. We imagine how our lives would have been different had we chosen a different holiday destination, failed our high school exams, or accepted that invitation to dinner. Work on adult counterfactual thinking is well established (e.g., Epstude & Roese, 2008; Mandel, Hilton, & Catellani, 2005) and research on the neuroscience of counterfactual emotions is expanding rapidly (e.g., Nicolle, Bach, Driver, & Dolan, 2011). Knowing how counterfactual thinking develops is critical if we are to understand fully the cognitive processes that underpin both its acquisition and use by adults, and children’s decision making, causal reasoning, and moral judgments. In this review, we focus on real-world counterfactuals— thoughts about how past events could have been different, which is how social scientists tend to think of counterfactuals (e.g., Epstude & Roese, 2008). Some philosophers favor a broader use of the word that terms all thoughts about alternatives to the here and now as counterfactual, including, for example, thinking about future, pretend, or fictional worlds (e.g., Woodward, 2011). Real-world counterfactuals are central to the practical business of learning from our past mistakes (Epstude & Roese, 2008) and support certain emotions, such as regret. Moreover, real-world counterfactuals put specific and additional demands on children’s cognitive development compared to future, pretend, and fictional worlds (cf. Weisberg & Gopnik, 2013), and we explore that evidence here. THE DEVELOPMENT OF COUNTERFACTUAL